Approx. 100 migrant white pelicans seen at Hopson Bay, Lake Barkley, 12/5/2004
Sunday, December 05, 2004
Thursday, November 18, 2004
New Acquisition Thursday:
Disc 1 - NoMeansNo, People's Choice
Disc 2 - Chris Stamey w/ Yo La Tengo, V.O.T.E.
Disc 3 - British Sea Power, The Decline of British Sea Power
Disc 4 - Banyan, Live At Perkins' Place
Disc 5 - World Party, Dumbing Up
Disc 6 - Public Enemy, Yo! Bum Rush the Show!
Heaviest rotation, Banyan. Public Enemy close behind. NoMeansNo is the most rawkus by far, although the British Sea Power is full o' buzz and fury. So what can I say about World Party? Karl Wallinger is a one-trick pony, but he's damned good at it.
Disc 1 - NoMeansNo, People's Choice
Disc 2 - Chris Stamey w/ Yo La Tengo, V.O.T.E.
Disc 3 - British Sea Power, The Decline of British Sea Power
Disc 4 - Banyan, Live At Perkins' Place
Disc 5 - World Party, Dumbing Up
Disc 6 - Public Enemy, Yo! Bum Rush the Show!
Heaviest rotation, Banyan. Public Enemy close behind. NoMeansNo is the most rawkus by far, although the British Sea Power is full o' buzz and fury. So what can I say about World Party? Karl Wallinger is a one-trick pony, but he's damned good at it.
Wednesday, November 17, 2004
OK, so my post-election bounce isn't quite happening yet. I'm not feeling it much anyway. Burn-out is more like it. There's only so much outrage one can take before the bile and bitterness and "can-you-believe-that's" become so entrenched as to be a real turn off, both to self and to others.
So here I'm going to do my best to outline my take on the blue vs. red without losing my cool.
Short story: It's crap.
THE END.
OK, not really.
I've had more than one person refer me to Fuck The South, telling me what a larf that it is. While trying to be as PC as I can be, I'll allow that catharsis has its place. As vented spleen, that piece works OK, I guess. If whomever wrote it feels better, great; besides that, a few people got a good chuckle out of it. That's all good.
However...
(portions of this letter excerpted from an email I sent earlier today)
The problem I have is that the people guiding the strategy of the Democratic Party -- the Ickes'es, the McAuliffes, the Froms, the Shrums, the Braziles -- have been pushing this idea that you can't win by displaying a backbone. It's this desire to capture the mushy middle that's exacerbating the problem. What's worse, they're trying to "Clintonize" the election, conveniently forgetting one crucial component: Bill Clinton's not running. (Al From was no more a kingmaker than my cat; he happened to be in the right place at the right time.) While they might have had other parts of the formula roughly correct, I contend that you can't separate Clinton's campaign strategy from Clinton the persona.
So let me come around to the "fuck the south" meme.
As a more deeply interested observer in Southern politics this time around, I gotta call some shit into question here which might be lost on our northern counterpart. We have a popular Democratic governor (60%+ approval rating) -- Phil Bredesen -- who basically sat out the whole election. If that wasn't bad enough, here's another kick in the teeth: the state party is a captive interest of the governor's office. After Bredesen's *successful* election in 2002, he liquidated the state party office and had it peopled with his folks. One might ask why that matters. I wondered that myself, even if unconsciously so. I did think it weird that a politician would refuse to dance with those what brung him, but as victor, the spoils, yadda yadda.
The state party did absolutely zero to promote Kerry statewide. It was so bad... SO BAD... that they wouldn't even put up Kerry/Edwards signs in the windows of their office. No shit. This is the state party, y'all. That seems a trifle, but I'm just getting started. What's worse, they took pains to go on the record as saying that Tennessee, the state that had elected Al Gore to the senate twice and put the Democrat Phil Bredesen into office, was BUSH COUNTRY. Here it is, Democratic home turf, Democratic incumbency. You'd think that was leverage, but all the same, they're conceding the election to Bush weeks ahead of November 2.
Why?
Well, they had a strategy. They would hope and wish that TN somehow fell into Kerry's lap. That's about the size of it.
Seriously, though: their strategy was to attempt to promote a few local races in a failed attempt to preserve the Democratic majority in the state senate, which might seem sensible enough on its face. Recent history shows, though, that they wound up spending all of their money in that losing strategy while they could have chosen to spend that money on leveraging a statewide party infrastructure for GOTV for all Democratic candidates, not just a few targeted races. Helluva tutorial in opportunity cost there, huh? But I guess you can expect that out of a state political organization whose sole purpose is to support Phil Bredesen, even if it does bear the legacy of being the statewide Democratic leadership vessel.
I understand that they're trying their best to keep their powder dry for the 2006 gubernatorial cycle, but the Republicans are hell-bent on taking that office back from Bredesen. If he thinks that his failure to show up for Kerry is going to win him points going into '06 with the GOP-leaning swing voter, I gotta call bullshit. He doesn't understand what he's up against. And pushing policies that alienate the unions (workers comp limitations favoring business) and the less fortunate (eliminating the state-sponsored TennCare system, leaving 400,000 people without health coverage) are going to wind up blowing up in his face. I don't know what he expects come 2006 in terms of national financial support from the DNC, but if I were [insert DLC-approved successor to McAuliffe here], I'd think twice before helping out.
I can't speak to the rest of the "southern" state parties (which by some bizarre fit of geographical spleen now includes Idaho and North Dakota), but here, they were not visible. The county parties were left to do the footwork without coherent state leadership, and with Phil Bredesen's self-loathing state party dismissing the 2004 campaign as hopeless, the result was pretty well predictable.
What's left, then? The national? Oh, well, they said "fuck the south" the loudest. "We can win without the south," says John Kerry. True to form, the national campaign spent little time and few dollars here. We need help, we need staff, we need money to help put out yard signs & make buttons & bumper stickers, we need advertising on the air, but we're left to fend for ourselves. It's pretty hard to win state-wide if the state doesn't believe in you, but when the national has you written off as well? It's called "self-fulfilling prophecy."
We are not hopelessly Republican down here. Even at the height of Jim Crow, this was the state that elected not only Al Gore, Sr. but also Estes Kefauver. While it might be fashionable and cathartic to place blame on the south for losing this election, we need vision from our brethren, not vitriol. We worked our asses off down here, and it's really hard to see people make a joke out of the sort of work that we put into winning this thing. Yeah, we have our issues -- but I know just as many Bible-thumping morons from Central Illinois as I do from Middle Tennessee. We just don't have the benefit of a Chicago metro area to swing the entire state our direction.
So, yeah, go ahead and have a giggle at the South's expense. But just remember how hard some people fought here in a uphill battle. Tennessee may have gone down, but it certainly was more of an effort than the election day coverage might have you believe. And we're smarting just as much as the rest of you are, only we live among the Bible-thumping, gun-toting, whiskey-drinking, dangerously undereducated cousin-fuckers that you so viciously rebuke and dismiss. You call them idiots, we call them our neighbors.
(Yes, I am fully aware of the trade-off. Having lived in Chicago, Denver, and Kansas City, and having seen enough of New York City and DC to know better, y'all can have at it. I'll trade my 20 minute commute and 1.3 acres for your 3 hours and postage stamp efficiencies any day of the week. Keep in mind, though, that I live in true blue Davidson County. Southern charm does have to meet certain minimum requirements for me. Nevertheless, that's a much broader discussion.)
Short story made long: Party politics are a collective effort. We won't ever win if the state and national leadership continues to say "fuck the south." It's a dangerous game of brinksmanship. Maybe instead of investing millions of dollars to keep Nader off the ballot next time, the DP can spend a few hundred thousand on party building in independent Southern states like Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
So here I'm going to do my best to outline my take on the blue vs. red without losing my cool.
Short story: It's crap.
THE END.
OK, not really.
I've had more than one person refer me to Fuck The South, telling me what a larf that it is. While trying to be as PC as I can be, I'll allow that catharsis has its place. As vented spleen, that piece works OK, I guess. If whomever wrote it feels better, great; besides that, a few people got a good chuckle out of it. That's all good.
However...
(portions of this letter excerpted from an email I sent earlier today)
The problem I have is that the people guiding the strategy of the Democratic Party -- the Ickes'es, the McAuliffes, the Froms, the Shrums, the Braziles -- have been pushing this idea that you can't win by displaying a backbone. It's this desire to capture the mushy middle that's exacerbating the problem. What's worse, they're trying to "Clintonize" the election, conveniently forgetting one crucial component: Bill Clinton's not running. (Al From was no more a kingmaker than my cat; he happened to be in the right place at the right time.) While they might have had other parts of the formula roughly correct, I contend that you can't separate Clinton's campaign strategy from Clinton the persona.
So let me come around to the "fuck the south" meme.
As a more deeply interested observer in Southern politics this time around, I gotta call some shit into question here which might be lost on our northern counterpart. We have a popular Democratic governor (60%+ approval rating) -- Phil Bredesen -- who basically sat out the whole election. If that wasn't bad enough, here's another kick in the teeth: the state party is a captive interest of the governor's office. After Bredesen's *successful* election in 2002, he liquidated the state party office and had it peopled with his folks. One might ask why that matters. I wondered that myself, even if unconsciously so. I did think it weird that a politician would refuse to dance with those what brung him, but as victor, the spoils, yadda yadda.
The state party did absolutely zero to promote Kerry statewide. It was so bad... SO BAD... that they wouldn't even put up Kerry/Edwards signs in the windows of their office. No shit. This is the state party, y'all. That seems a trifle, but I'm just getting started. What's worse, they took pains to go on the record as saying that Tennessee, the state that had elected Al Gore to the senate twice and put the Democrat Phil Bredesen into office, was BUSH COUNTRY. Here it is, Democratic home turf, Democratic incumbency. You'd think that was leverage, but all the same, they're conceding the election to Bush weeks ahead of November 2.
Why?
Well, they had a strategy. They would hope and wish that TN somehow fell into Kerry's lap. That's about the size of it.
Seriously, though: their strategy was to attempt to promote a few local races in a failed attempt to preserve the Democratic majority in the state senate, which might seem sensible enough on its face. Recent history shows, though, that they wound up spending all of their money in that losing strategy while they could have chosen to spend that money on leveraging a statewide party infrastructure for GOTV for all Democratic candidates, not just a few targeted races. Helluva tutorial in opportunity cost there, huh? But I guess you can expect that out of a state political organization whose sole purpose is to support Phil Bredesen, even if it does bear the legacy of being the statewide Democratic leadership vessel.
I understand that they're trying their best to keep their powder dry for the 2006 gubernatorial cycle, but the Republicans are hell-bent on taking that office back from Bredesen. If he thinks that his failure to show up for Kerry is going to win him points going into '06 with the GOP-leaning swing voter, I gotta call bullshit. He doesn't understand what he's up against. And pushing policies that alienate the unions (workers comp limitations favoring business) and the less fortunate (eliminating the state-sponsored TennCare system, leaving 400,000 people without health coverage) are going to wind up blowing up in his face. I don't know what he expects come 2006 in terms of national financial support from the DNC, but if I were [insert DLC-approved successor to McAuliffe here], I'd think twice before helping out.
I can't speak to the rest of the "southern" state parties (which by some bizarre fit of geographical spleen now includes Idaho and North Dakota), but here, they were not visible. The county parties were left to do the footwork without coherent state leadership, and with Phil Bredesen's self-loathing state party dismissing the 2004 campaign as hopeless, the result was pretty well predictable.
What's left, then? The national? Oh, well, they said "fuck the south" the loudest. "We can win without the south," says John Kerry. True to form, the national campaign spent little time and few dollars here. We need help, we need staff, we need money to help put out yard signs & make buttons & bumper stickers, we need advertising on the air, but we're left to fend for ourselves. It's pretty hard to win state-wide if the state doesn't believe in you, but when the national has you written off as well? It's called "self-fulfilling prophecy."
We are not hopelessly Republican down here. Even at the height of Jim Crow, this was the state that elected not only Al Gore, Sr. but also Estes Kefauver. While it might be fashionable and cathartic to place blame on the south for losing this election, we need vision from our brethren, not vitriol. We worked our asses off down here, and it's really hard to see people make a joke out of the sort of work that we put into winning this thing. Yeah, we have our issues -- but I know just as many Bible-thumping morons from Central Illinois as I do from Middle Tennessee. We just don't have the benefit of a Chicago metro area to swing the entire state our direction.
So, yeah, go ahead and have a giggle at the South's expense. But just remember how hard some people fought here in a uphill battle. Tennessee may have gone down, but it certainly was more of an effort than the election day coverage might have you believe. And we're smarting just as much as the rest of you are, only we live among the Bible-thumping, gun-toting, whiskey-drinking, dangerously undereducated cousin-fuckers that you so viciously rebuke and dismiss. You call them idiots, we call them our neighbors.
(Yes, I am fully aware of the trade-off. Having lived in Chicago, Denver, and Kansas City, and having seen enough of New York City and DC to know better, y'all can have at it. I'll trade my 20 minute commute and 1.3 acres for your 3 hours and postage stamp efficiencies any day of the week. Keep in mind, though, that I live in true blue Davidson County. Southern charm does have to meet certain minimum requirements for me. Nevertheless, that's a much broader discussion.)
Short story made long: Party politics are a collective effort. We won't ever win if the state and national leadership continues to say "fuck the south." It's a dangerous game of brinksmanship. Maybe instead of investing millions of dollars to keep Nader off the ballot next time, the DP can spend a few hundred thousand on party building in independent Southern states like Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Saturday, November 06, 2004
An abbreviated response to "An Open Letter to the Democratic Party"
1. You didn't give me clear positions on the issues.
You aren't paying attention.
I get the idea that what you're asking for are not clear positions. You're asking for simplistic positions.
2. You didn't convince me that you would defend America against the threats of terrorism.
Where you get your ideas about this, I don't know. Kerry made it very clear that he wanted to hunt down and kill the terrorists. What's unclear about that? Did you miss the part about Kerry wanting to send 40,000 additional troops, create 3 new divisions, and to hunt down those responsible? Did you miss what he said about Afghanistan?
Again, you're simply not paying attention.
3. You insulted my intelligence by the constant mantra of Kerry's service in Vietnam.
Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by not firing someone over the Abu Ghraib incidents. Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by constantly referring to 9/11 as if no one remembered what happened on that day. Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by putting Zell Miller on their stage as a keynote speaker, as if that addled old jerk even represents the Democratic party in anything but name. Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by endorsing the war in Iraq even after it was revealed that there were no links to Al Qaeda and no weapons of mass destruction. Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by saying that the war in Iraq was about saving people there from Saddam Hussein. Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by constantly referring to a liberal media that doesn't exist. Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by saying Massachusetts like a 4-letter word.
4. Your constant references to the opinions of the rest of the world scared me
You need to wake up and realize that the War On Terrorism requires that we have strong allies -- and that if we alienate them and pursue our own reckless course of action, we will not be able to effectively contain the threat.
Failing that, you really should go out and see some of the rest of the world. There's a lot out there that you should experience, and I believe that if you had a healthier respect for other cultures, you might understand why your fear and arrogance here are completely misplaced.
5. You disturbed me with your demonization of the rich.
I must have missed this. I believe that Kerry talked a lot about taxing the rich -- that they needed to share fairly in the burden of fighting a global war. This is the only time in history where the wealthy were not asked to sacrifice. But everyone else did.
Wherever it is that Kerry said that the rich were evil? You are apparently hearing things that aren't there.
6. Here is something you could work on right about now: I could not stomach to listen to your incessant hatred of President Bush.
Since this is an "open letter to the Democratic Party," I believe what you're talking about are not the opinions of the national campaign, but the opinions of a number of people following the race closely that have strong personal opinions.
Contrast that with the vulgar, immature, incessant attacks on President Clinton. Those were espoused and encouraged by the GOP, right up to the top of the organization.
7. I don't think you really want my vote.
Here, I agree with you. Sort of.
I don't think Democrats would mind having your vote, but I think they're stupid for trying to chase after it.
Why? You're clearly a Republican leaning voter. They don't need you in order to win, but they don't "get" that the solution is to pander less to you and your kind. The reason that more people don't vote Democratic is because the Democrats are trying too hard to win voters like you, instead of focusing on their traditional bases of support. By trying to win so-called right-leaning moderates like you (which I find hard to believe, since your objections could have come straight from a list of GOP talking points), they're forced to adopt positions that alienate people from the process. More needs to be done to get people to feel like they're invested in the results of the election. 40% of the eligible population didn't even bother to vote this time, and among those, I'm certain that Kerry and the Democrats can find the 3% of voters who'd make the difference nationally, with or without you.
What they need to do is to stop feeling so timid about writing off your vote.
Maybe then, they'd feel free to take stronger positions on labor issues like the minimum wage and outsourcing, on minority empowerment, on health care issues, on getting corporations out of Congress, on enforcing voter rights, and so on.
Yeah, we'd lose you.
But I could live with that.
1. You didn't give me clear positions on the issues.
You aren't paying attention.
I get the idea that what you're asking for are not clear positions. You're asking for simplistic positions.
2. You didn't convince me that you would defend America against the threats of terrorism.
Where you get your ideas about this, I don't know. Kerry made it very clear that he wanted to hunt down and kill the terrorists. What's unclear about that? Did you miss the part about Kerry wanting to send 40,000 additional troops, create 3 new divisions, and to hunt down those responsible? Did you miss what he said about Afghanistan?
Again, you're simply not paying attention.
3. You insulted my intelligence by the constant mantra of Kerry's service in Vietnam.
Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by not firing someone over the Abu Ghraib incidents. Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by constantly referring to 9/11 as if no one remembered what happened on that day. Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by putting Zell Miller on their stage as a keynote speaker, as if that addled old jerk even represents the Democratic party in anything but name. Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by endorsing the war in Iraq even after it was revealed that there were no links to Al Qaeda and no weapons of mass destruction. Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by saying that the war in Iraq was about saving people there from Saddam Hussein. Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by constantly referring to a liberal media that doesn't exist. Your Republican friends insulted my intelligence by saying Massachusetts like a 4-letter word.
4. Your constant references to the opinions of the rest of the world scared me
You need to wake up and realize that the War On Terrorism requires that we have strong allies -- and that if we alienate them and pursue our own reckless course of action, we will not be able to effectively contain the threat.
Failing that, you really should go out and see some of the rest of the world. There's a lot out there that you should experience, and I believe that if you had a healthier respect for other cultures, you might understand why your fear and arrogance here are completely misplaced.
5. You disturbed me with your demonization of the rich.
I must have missed this. I believe that Kerry talked a lot about taxing the rich -- that they needed to share fairly in the burden of fighting a global war. This is the only time in history where the wealthy were not asked to sacrifice. But everyone else did.
Wherever it is that Kerry said that the rich were evil? You are apparently hearing things that aren't there.
6. Here is something you could work on right about now: I could not stomach to listen to your incessant hatred of President Bush.
Since this is an "open letter to the Democratic Party," I believe what you're talking about are not the opinions of the national campaign, but the opinions of a number of people following the race closely that have strong personal opinions.
Contrast that with the vulgar, immature, incessant attacks on President Clinton. Those were espoused and encouraged by the GOP, right up to the top of the organization.
7. I don't think you really want my vote.
Here, I agree with you. Sort of.
I don't think Democrats would mind having your vote, but I think they're stupid for trying to chase after it.
Why? You're clearly a Republican leaning voter. They don't need you in order to win, but they don't "get" that the solution is to pander less to you and your kind. The reason that more people don't vote Democratic is because the Democrats are trying too hard to win voters like you, instead of focusing on their traditional bases of support. By trying to win so-called right-leaning moderates like you (which I find hard to believe, since your objections could have come straight from a list of GOP talking points), they're forced to adopt positions that alienate people from the process. More needs to be done to get people to feel like they're invested in the results of the election. 40% of the eligible population didn't even bother to vote this time, and among those, I'm certain that Kerry and the Democrats can find the 3% of voters who'd make the difference nationally, with or without you.
What they need to do is to stop feeling so timid about writing off your vote.
Maybe then, they'd feel free to take stronger positions on labor issues like the minimum wage and outsourcing, on minority empowerment, on health care issues, on getting corporations out of Congress, on enforcing voter rights, and so on.
Yeah, we'd lose you.
But I could live with that.
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Well, here it is, America. The results are in. You had a choice, and you endorsed incompetence, gross negligence, indignity, unaccountability, failure, corruption, dishonesty, and arrogance. You did, however, save us from the horrors of gay marriage (as if denying someone a right that you take for granted is going to stop men from kissing each other).
Times like this, I'm sorry that I had hope. I regret feeling that there was a glimmer of a chance that I would get to be the gracious winner this time. I am angry at my own raised expectations.
I willed myself to believe that things would turn out in my favor during this election. This morning, I pulled myself into the office to face mytormentors co-workers.
"You don't change commanders in the middle of a fuckin' war, Andy. We needed to save those Iraqis from Saddam," I was told.
"Oh, ___, that's disingenuous. Mass murder and genocide happens all over this globe and there's no uniform moral imperative to get involved."
(Yeah, like you give a shit about Iraqis. Explain to me how we're saving them from Saddam's chemical weapons again? Would that be because we're killing them first?)
Ever since, there's been a constant hammering yowl pinging around my skull:
"WHAT HAPPENED TO YOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUUUU???"
Ian MacKaye, screaming the introduction to Minor Threat's "Filler." I don't know where it came from, but it won't leave.
YOU CALL IT RELIGION! YOU'RE FULL OF SHIT!
Y'know, I think I'm going to get some mileage out of this anger/defiance/cynicism for a while. I was just saying last night to a friend of mine that situations like this make me want to quit my job, buy a case of cheap whiskey, and to start up a Pogues cover band, or something of the like.
Maybe I should make good on that.
Times like this, I'm sorry that I had hope. I regret feeling that there was a glimmer of a chance that I would get to be the gracious winner this time. I am angry at my own raised expectations.
I willed myself to believe that things would turn out in my favor during this election. This morning, I pulled myself into the office to face my
"You don't change commanders in the middle of a fuckin' war, Andy. We needed to save those Iraqis from Saddam," I was told.
"Oh, ___, that's disingenuous. Mass murder and genocide happens all over this globe and there's no uniform moral imperative to get involved."
(Yeah, like you give a shit about Iraqis. Explain to me how we're saving them from Saddam's chemical weapons again? Would that be because we're killing them first?)
Ever since, there's been a constant hammering yowl pinging around my skull:
"WHAT HAPPENED TO YOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUUUU???"
Ian MacKaye, screaming the introduction to Minor Threat's "Filler." I don't know where it came from, but it won't leave.
YOU CALL IT RELIGION! YOU'RE FULL OF SHIT!
Y'know, I think I'm going to get some mileage out of this anger/defiance/cynicism for a while. I was just saying last night to a friend of mine that situations like this make me want to quit my job, buy a case of cheap whiskey, and to start up a Pogues cover band, or something of the like.
Maybe I should make good on that.
I know that the people that run our desks and offices got so full
of the desire to grab enough money to run away and hide on, that
they let this thought run them, instead of the bigger plan,
well, this has always been a hard word to say, but
It could very truly be that our office people are doing the best they
know how to do,
But we had ought to teach ourselves better and higher than this
before we run ourselves and put ourselves into our offices.
--Woodrow Wilson Guthrie
of the desire to grab enough money to run away and hide on, that
they let this thought run them, instead of the bigger plan,
well, this has always been a hard word to say, but
It could very truly be that our office people are doing the best they
know how to do,
But we had ought to teach ourselves better and higher than this
before we run ourselves and put ourselves into our offices.
--Woodrow Wilson Guthrie
Sunday, October 31, 2004
The Eve of Election Eve
There's an old saying in Tennessee, perhaps it's in Texas, but I know it's in Tennessee. It goes something like this:
I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
There's an old saying in Tennessee, perhaps it's in Texas, but I know it's in Tennessee. It goes something like this:
I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Baed on the inspiration of Abu Aardvark, I bring you my own little 527-style ad:
The Election Made Simple.
(apologies to Nick Lowe)
The Election Made Simple.
(apologies to Nick Lowe)
Saturday, October 23, 2004
A side note to the Nader/Camejo carpetbaggers from Canada who where trying to rock the local vote before the R.E.M. show last night:
You're absolutely pathetic.
You have done no work locally. You have no local organization. You come from a foreign country to hawk Ralph Nader's wares in a battleground state 2 weeks before the general election.
Compare what you're doing to what the Davidson County Democratic Party is doing. Compare that to the political stick that the Music Row Democrats are swinging. I don't know if what you're doing is going to make any difference, but if it does, I'm hunting your asses to the darkest corners of Canuckistan.
Shame on you.
And Ralph, you bring shame upon the entire political process.
If Zogby is right, this race in TN is down to a couple of points, and Nashville is one of the few places where a significant Nader vote might emerge.
By taking money from Republicans, using Canadians to do your dirty work in close races, all the while proclaiming to espouse a new form of politics, you have portrayed yourself not as the salvation of the system, but rather as the lowest form of political slime imaginable.
You're absolutely pathetic.
You have done no work locally. You have no local organization. You come from a foreign country to hawk Ralph Nader's wares in a battleground state 2 weeks before the general election.
Compare what you're doing to what the Davidson County Democratic Party is doing. Compare that to the political stick that the Music Row Democrats are swinging. I don't know if what you're doing is going to make any difference, but if it does, I'm hunting your asses to the darkest corners of Canuckistan.
Shame on you.
And Ralph, you bring shame upon the entire political process.
If Zogby is right, this race in TN is down to a couple of points, and Nashville is one of the few places where a significant Nader vote might emerge.
By taking money from Republicans, using Canadians to do your dirty work in close races, all the while proclaiming to espouse a new form of politics, you have portrayed yourself not as the salvation of the system, but rather as the lowest form of political slime imaginable.
R.E.M., Ryman Auditorium, Nashville TN 10/22/2004
When was the last time R.E.M. played a 2500 seat venue? I peg that around the time of the "Work Tour," circa 1987 when I saw them play the War Memorial Coliseum in KCMO. That was the era of Document. It was on the tail end of the Reagan Administration, and political statements in music were somewhat au courant. Little did we know at that time that the Republican elephant would continue to rampage for another 4 years, but that was also the time of Michael Dukakis.
Now Dukakis' former Lt. Gov. is duking it out with a different Bush, R.E.M. has been on a major label since then, and now they're back to playing small arenas in the southeastern US -- and just off the Americans Coming Together tour, Stipe is making few bones about his partiality.
R.E.M. showed up late Thursday to support a local rock benefit for the Music Row Democrats. Stipe congratulated my wife on all of her hard work on the campaign, and they soon after went about their way until the next night.
And during the encore, Stipe bore a simple white t-shirt which had a blue star within a red circle, with the word KERRY in bold print above. (I'm informed that this particular shirt is only available for premium contributions to the DNC. Talk about wearing your allegiances on your sleeve.)
"You may not agree with me," Stipe drawled from center stage. [Boos overwhelmed by shouts of KERRY! and 2 MORE WEEKS!] Then an unintelligible insult, apparently deciphered at the proscenium. Stipe, eyes peering sideways, backlighting the blue bandit mask painted across his face, replies, "I'm not afraid."
That undercurrent rippled through the evening. The band tore into some old standards, including the first track from the Document release kicking things off -- "The time to rise has been engaged!" That was the way the set started in 1987 as well.
Everything old is new again.
While we weren't "welcomed to the occupation," we were favored with an incredibly eclectic variety of songs. Many were from the new release, and were apparently unfamiliar to most people in the audience. But when they connected, the room was afire with enthusiasm. The crowd lept, screamed, sang, danced, wiggled, and craned their necks for better views. It was standing room only, save for a few times when they would indulge their most moody, introspective material. Mike Mills wore a rhinestone studded Manuel jacket, and took center-stage to sing "Rockville" in tribute to the late Jack Emerson, who was the local music hero that opened his home to R.E.M. back in the days when they were playing the quasi-legendary Cantrell's. Peter Buck looked every inch the rock star, and shredded the Gretsch Country Gentleman for the solo in "Walk Unafraid."
Chet Atkins smiled from beyond. (Y'all have never played the Ryman before, huh? High time.)
Ken Stringfellow (Posies, Big Star) and Scott McAughey (Young Fresh Fellows, Minus 5) were there in suport. They were constantly shifting positions onstage, and switching instruments. The only guy that didn't take another shift was Bill Riefen (Ministry, NIN), who capably handled the material, rather than providing the sort of programmed/thudding soundtrack one might expect.
Stipe tore the head off of "Life and How to Live It" to wind out the set. I lost my mind at that point.
He is obviously more comfortable in his own skin these days -- and their love for the material, their love for each other shone through every minute of the performance. It was a triumph.
Set:
Finest Worksong
Begin The Begin
So Fast So Numb
Animal
Boy In The Well
I've Been High
Make It All Okay
The One I Love
Aftermath
Bad Day
The Outsiders
(Don't Go Back To) Rockville
Electrolite
She Just Wants To Be
Final Straw
Losing My Religion
Walk Unafraid
Life And How To Live It
Encore:
What's The Frequency, Kenneth?
Leaving New York
Exhuming McCarthy
I Wanted To Be Wrong
Permanent Vacation
I'm Gonna DJ
Man On The Moon
Total time: approx. 2hr 30min
When was the last time R.E.M. played a 2500 seat venue? I peg that around the time of the "Work Tour," circa 1987 when I saw them play the War Memorial Coliseum in KCMO. That was the era of Document. It was on the tail end of the Reagan Administration, and political statements in music were somewhat au courant. Little did we know at that time that the Republican elephant would continue to rampage for another 4 years, but that was also the time of Michael Dukakis.
Now Dukakis' former Lt. Gov. is duking it out with a different Bush, R.E.M. has been on a major label since then, and now they're back to playing small arenas in the southeastern US -- and just off the Americans Coming Together tour, Stipe is making few bones about his partiality.
R.E.M. showed up late Thursday to support a local rock benefit for the Music Row Democrats. Stipe congratulated my wife on all of her hard work on the campaign, and they soon after went about their way until the next night.
And during the encore, Stipe bore a simple white t-shirt which had a blue star within a red circle, with the word KERRY in bold print above. (I'm informed that this particular shirt is only available for premium contributions to the DNC. Talk about wearing your allegiances on your sleeve.)
"You may not agree with me," Stipe drawled from center stage. [Boos overwhelmed by shouts of KERRY! and 2 MORE WEEKS!] Then an unintelligible insult, apparently deciphered at the proscenium. Stipe, eyes peering sideways, backlighting the blue bandit mask painted across his face, replies, "I'm not afraid."
That undercurrent rippled through the evening. The band tore into some old standards, including the first track from the Document release kicking things off -- "The time to rise has been engaged!" That was the way the set started in 1987 as well.
Everything old is new again.
While we weren't "welcomed to the occupation," we were favored with an incredibly eclectic variety of songs. Many were from the new release, and were apparently unfamiliar to most people in the audience. But when they connected, the room was afire with enthusiasm. The crowd lept, screamed, sang, danced, wiggled, and craned their necks for better views. It was standing room only, save for a few times when they would indulge their most moody, introspective material. Mike Mills wore a rhinestone studded Manuel jacket, and took center-stage to sing "Rockville" in tribute to the late Jack Emerson, who was the local music hero that opened his home to R.E.M. back in the days when they were playing the quasi-legendary Cantrell's. Peter Buck looked every inch the rock star, and shredded the Gretsch Country Gentleman for the solo in "Walk Unafraid."
Chet Atkins smiled from beyond. (Y'all have never played the Ryman before, huh? High time.)
Ken Stringfellow (Posies, Big Star) and Scott McAughey (Young Fresh Fellows, Minus 5) were there in suport. They were constantly shifting positions onstage, and switching instruments. The only guy that didn't take another shift was Bill Riefen (Ministry, NIN), who capably handled the material, rather than providing the sort of programmed/thudding soundtrack one might expect.
Stipe tore the head off of "Life and How to Live It" to wind out the set. I lost my mind at that point.
He is obviously more comfortable in his own skin these days -- and their love for the material, their love for each other shone through every minute of the performance. It was a triumph.
Set:
Finest Worksong
Begin The Begin
So Fast So Numb
Animal
Boy In The Well
I've Been High
Make It All Okay
The One I Love
Aftermath
Bad Day
The Outsiders
(Don't Go Back To) Rockville
Electrolite
She Just Wants To Be
Final Straw
Losing My Religion
Walk Unafraid
Life And How To Live It
Encore:
What's The Frequency, Kenneth?
Leaving New York
Exhuming McCarthy
I Wanted To Be Wrong
Permanent Vacation
I'm Gonna DJ
Man On The Moon
Total time: approx. 2hr 30min
Sunday, October 10, 2004
You blew the budget and you botched Iraq.
Now I'm "takin' my country back."
Download. Listen. Call up your local country radio station and request it.
(brought to you by the Honky Tonkers for Truth)
Now I'm "takin' my country back."
Download. Listen. Call up your local country radio station and request it.
(brought to you by the Honky Tonkers for Truth)
Not having implemented sitemeter, I have no idea if I'm getting hits on this blog. For what it's worth, it's not mattered much to me. So I have no idea if anyone is reading this. This blog hasn't been much more than a recycling bin for a few bits and bytes that I've posted elsewhere in the world -- but having a blog does make it easier to transfer information to a number of people. Say, for instance, letting people know where they can find a few samples of my photographs.
So, if anyone is surfing on in here from points unknown, welcome.
A bit about me... I'm a thirtysomething professional in Nashville. I work supporting a single large client for a similarly large communications company. (And here, I've always said that I don't define myself through work. Odd.) Anyhoo. My interests range broadly between homebrewing, photography, hiking, home computing (Mac neophyte, relatively speaking). I'm married, I have four bickersome cats who share the house with my wife and I. We also inhabit a home with a couple thousand compact discs.
Lessee... oh, yeah. Politics.
I've been suffering through a hangover which I got as the result of downing a couple of large bottles of La Trappe quadruppel Belgian Ale last night after the Michael Moore Slacker Uprising presentation down at the Gaylord Entertainment Center. So I've been hurtin' for certain today. But what's making my head ache all the more is the morning headlines from our "hometown" Gannett dishrag, The Tennessean. Now, I'm not much of one to go around blaming the media for the situation in which we've found ourselves lately. I was raised in a household of reporters and editors. My family and friends have been in the journalism biz for a long, long time. I do believe in the necessity of having a fourth estate in this here freedom's home.
That said, I'll be buggered if I can figure out what's going on with the print press in Guitar Town.
It's reminiscent of the weather forecaster who's calling for sunshine on the TV, while you're looking out your window and -- whaddyaknow -- it's raining.
So the storyline is this: Tennessee is out of play, it's a lock for the Republicans, and with weeks left to go, there's nothing but a widening, yawning lead for the GOP.
That's not what I'm seeing. I could go on about this at some length, but suffice it to say that most polls don't show the sort of delta that Bonna De La Cruz and her paper are pimping. Tennessee IS IN PLAY. This isn't over by a long shot. Zogby has TN pegged at less than 1% differential. When the dealin' is done, we'll see who was right, and based on track record, Zogby is my 3:2 fave to win.
Here's what's got me bothered, though -- and it's typical of how national politics have been locally discussed:
There's two things terribly wrong here. One, that poll they refer to is horseshit. I've gone on at length about it here before (see below). But two, and more disturbing? Phil Bredesen -- our Democrat governor -- is conceding the race. I wonder if he believes what he reads in the paper. He must (and more's the pity). Either that, or he's listening to the wrong people (and still more's the pity). Yet, it is perfectly consistent with what we've seen out of the Governor's office during this campaign cycle. (Pitiful.)
You know what I've noticed? Bredesen has not been visible. Oh, there've been a couple of fundraisers held at his mansion off Frankin Road, sure. Yeah, he showed up when John Kerry came to town during the GOP convention. He even took a trip to Boston in order to make a show of committing TN's delegation to Kerry. But where has the political operation been that worked to get Bredesen elected? Where's the governor on the stump? How's he reaching out to his folks? Or -- even better -- why hasn't he been twisting arms and calling in favors and doing the hard work that it takes to light fires under a few asses?
Here's my theory: Bredesen is so scared that he'll alienate his "Bredesen Republicans" that he's been too chickenshit to take a public stand.
Here's why he's wrong: PHIL, YOU DON'T NEED THE REPUBLICANS TO WIN. YOU NEED YOUR BASE. And in case you've forgotten, those people are women, working people, union folks, minorities. Remember?
I mean, really. Here we have the one blue state in a sea of red... we have a Democratic state House, a Democratic state Senate, and OUR OWN DEMOCRAT GOVERNOR is too much of a pussy to say that out loud and proud. And he's so concerned about saving his own ass that he's not made a move to think big. Look at the opportunity that lay in front of him: He had the chance to show his mettle, he had the chance to jump in the middle of the fray and LEAD, but instead, he's talking down his own state, and he's mealy-mouthing the strength of his party constituency.
Here it is again: "The way the presidential race is shaping up certainly doesn't help to elect Democratic legislators," Bredesen said.
I know how to read, and I have a single response for the Governor and his political brain trust:
"Oh yeah? Well, fuck you, too."
I hereby nominate Phil Bredesen as Worst Supporting Actor in a Position of Uninspired Leadership. I used to think he was just a Republican in disguise, but I've got him clocked. He's cut from exactly the same cloth as Tom Daschle and Dick Gephardt. They're marginally competent hacks, but they do not have it where it counts. When it comes to gut check time, they buckle like belts.
I'm just... mortified.
What happened to "dancing with the one who brung you," Phil?
The Democratic constituency isn't what's missing. It's here, and it's working its ass off. It could use you.
If you only had the courage.
THAT'S what's missing.
So, if anyone is surfing on in here from points unknown, welcome.
A bit about me... I'm a thirtysomething professional in Nashville. I work supporting a single large client for a similarly large communications company. (And here, I've always said that I don't define myself through work. Odd.) Anyhoo. My interests range broadly between homebrewing, photography, hiking, home computing (Mac neophyte, relatively speaking). I'm married, I have four bickersome cats who share the house with my wife and I. We also inhabit a home with a couple thousand compact discs.
Lessee... oh, yeah. Politics.
I've been suffering through a hangover which I got as the result of downing a couple of large bottles of La Trappe quadruppel Belgian Ale last night after the Michael Moore Slacker Uprising presentation down at the Gaylord Entertainment Center. So I've been hurtin' for certain today. But what's making my head ache all the more is the morning headlines from our "hometown" Gannett dishrag, The Tennessean. Now, I'm not much of one to go around blaming the media for the situation in which we've found ourselves lately. I was raised in a household of reporters and editors. My family and friends have been in the journalism biz for a long, long time. I do believe in the necessity of having a fourth estate in this here freedom's home.
That said, I'll be buggered if I can figure out what's going on with the print press in Guitar Town.
It's reminiscent of the weather forecaster who's calling for sunshine on the TV, while you're looking out your window and -- whaddyaknow -- it's raining.
So the storyline is this: Tennessee is out of play, it's a lock for the Republicans, and with weeks left to go, there's nothing but a widening, yawning lead for the GOP.
That's not what I'm seeing. I could go on about this at some length, but suffice it to say that most polls don't show the sort of delta that Bonna De La Cruz and her paper are pimping. Tennessee IS IN PLAY. This isn't over by a long shot. Zogby has TN pegged at less than 1% differential. When the dealin' is done, we'll see who was right, and based on track record, Zogby is my 3:2 fave to win.
Here's what's got me bothered, though -- and it's typical of how national politics have been locally discussed:
"Gov. Phil Bredesen said he is "cautiously confident" that Democrats can hang on to their majorities in the state House and Senate.
"There is no question I live in a state that is leaning Republican," said Bredesen, the first Democrat to win a statewide office since Ned McWherter's re-election as governor in 1990.
"The way the presidential race is shaping up certainly doesn't help to elect Democratic legislators," Bredesen said.
A poll by The Tennessean last month showed President Bush leading Democratic nominee John Kerry by 16 points.
There's two things terribly wrong here. One, that poll they refer to is horseshit. I've gone on at length about it here before (see below). But two, and more disturbing? Phil Bredesen -- our Democrat governor -- is conceding the race. I wonder if he believes what he reads in the paper. He must (and more's the pity). Either that, or he's listening to the wrong people (and still more's the pity). Yet, it is perfectly consistent with what we've seen out of the Governor's office during this campaign cycle. (Pitiful.)
You know what I've noticed? Bredesen has not been visible. Oh, there've been a couple of fundraisers held at his mansion off Frankin Road, sure. Yeah, he showed up when John Kerry came to town during the GOP convention. He even took a trip to Boston in order to make a show of committing TN's delegation to Kerry. But where has the political operation been that worked to get Bredesen elected? Where's the governor on the stump? How's he reaching out to his folks? Or -- even better -- why hasn't he been twisting arms and calling in favors and doing the hard work that it takes to light fires under a few asses?
Here's my theory: Bredesen is so scared that he'll alienate his "Bredesen Republicans" that he's been too chickenshit to take a public stand.
Here's why he's wrong: PHIL, YOU DON'T NEED THE REPUBLICANS TO WIN. YOU NEED YOUR BASE. And in case you've forgotten, those people are women, working people, union folks, minorities. Remember?
I mean, really. Here we have the one blue state in a sea of red... we have a Democratic state House, a Democratic state Senate, and OUR OWN DEMOCRAT GOVERNOR is too much of a pussy to say that out loud and proud. And he's so concerned about saving his own ass that he's not made a move to think big. Look at the opportunity that lay in front of him: He had the chance to show his mettle, he had the chance to jump in the middle of the fray and LEAD, but instead, he's talking down his own state, and he's mealy-mouthing the strength of his party constituency.
Here it is again: "The way the presidential race is shaping up certainly doesn't help to elect Democratic legislators," Bredesen said.
I know how to read, and I have a single response for the Governor and his political brain trust:
"Oh yeah? Well, fuck you, too."
I hereby nominate Phil Bredesen as Worst Supporting Actor in a Position of Uninspired Leadership. I used to think he was just a Republican in disguise, but I've got him clocked. He's cut from exactly the same cloth as Tom Daschle and Dick Gephardt. They're marginally competent hacks, but they do not have it where it counts. When it comes to gut check time, they buckle like belts.
I'm just... mortified.
What happened to "dancing with the one who brung you," Phil?
The Democratic constituency isn't what's missing. It's here, and it's working its ass off. It could use you.
If you only had the courage.
THAT'S what's missing.
Saturday, October 09, 2004
For what it's worth, the only pic I can take credit for photoshopping is the one below.
So if anyone coming here from Hayden's weblog sees fit to copy and forward my take on Ernst Stavro Blofeld, feel free.
(This is the Donald Pleasance era Blofeld, by the way. I'm picky about my choice of Bond villains. So anyone that thinks that's Mike Myers as Dr. Evil, go find a copy of You Only Live Twice and see the original in action.)
So if anyone coming here from Hayden's weblog sees fit to copy and forward my take on Ernst Stavro Blofeld, feel free.
(This is the Donald Pleasance era Blofeld, by the way. I'm picky about my choice of Bond villains. So anyone that thinks that's Mike Myers as Dr. Evil, go find a copy of You Only Live Twice and see the original in action.)
Tuesday, September 28, 2004
Wednesday, September 22, 2004
This was a much awaited set last night...
Nick Lowe, f. Geraint Watkins, Belcourt Theatre, Sept. 21, 2004.
This is another artist I don't know how I missed for so long. Most know of him either through his hit, "Cruel to Be Kind" or because of his marriage to Carlene Carter. Some also know him as the guy that produced Elvis Costello in his early years. Others may also know that he wrote "(What's So Funny 'Bout) Peace, Love, and Understanding."
I'm somewhat at a loss for words. It was a flawless set; yet, it's one of those things that I think you really had to experience in order to "get" it. Suffice it to say that at 53, Lowe is still a master of his own tunesmithy, and that the fact that he didn't sell out a venue the size of the Belcourt is but a single testament to the criminal underappreciation of this artist.
(Sidebar: Steve Winwood, Chuck Mead, Gillian Welch, and Dave Rawlings were spotted in the audience.)
Recommended:
Party of One: Set including a cast so tight a cat couldn't scratch it; Bill Kirchen on guitar, Ry Cooder on guitar, Dave Edmunds on guitar and co-producing, Paul Carrack on piano.
Also, if you can find it, 16 All Time Lowes is a good career retrospective.
Nick Lowe, f. Geraint Watkins, Belcourt Theatre, Sept. 21, 2004.
This is another artist I don't know how I missed for so long. Most know of him either through his hit, "Cruel to Be Kind" or because of his marriage to Carlene Carter. Some also know him as the guy that produced Elvis Costello in his early years. Others may also know that he wrote "(What's So Funny 'Bout) Peace, Love, and Understanding."
I'm somewhat at a loss for words. It was a flawless set; yet, it's one of those things that I think you really had to experience in order to "get" it. Suffice it to say that at 53, Lowe is still a master of his own tunesmithy, and that the fact that he didn't sell out a venue the size of the Belcourt is but a single testament to the criminal underappreciation of this artist.
(Sidebar: Steve Winwood, Chuck Mead, Gillian Welch, and Dave Rawlings were spotted in the audience.)
Recommended:
Party of One: Set including a cast so tight a cat couldn't scratch it; Bill Kirchen on guitar, Ry Cooder on guitar, Dave Edmunds on guitar and co-producing, Paul Carrack on piano.
Also, if you can find it, 16 All Time Lowes is a good career retrospective.
Monday, September 20, 2004
You lose sixteen points, and whaddya get?
A fat load of crap from the Nashville Tennessean, that's what. The headline shouldn't be about how the differential in Tennessee is Bush by 16... it should be why there hasn't been a consistent polling result in the whole few months running up to this election.
Bush may be ahead here, but I'm certain that the lead is single-digit.
Here's the methodology:
The Tennessean and Chattanooga Times Free Press poll was conducted by the national polling firm of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C.
It included a sample of 625 registered voters who said they are ''likely'' to vote in the Nov. 2 general election. Interviews were conducted by telephone over four days from Sept. 11-14.
The sample included people whose phone numbers were randomly selected and then weighted by exchanges to ensure statewide coverage and by county to reflect voter turnout in prior elections. (emphasis mine)
The poll includes a margin for error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. That means there is a 95% probability the results of the poll are within 4 percentage points higher or lower than the result if the entire population was sampled. For example, if a candidate scores 15%, there is a 19 out of 20 chance the actual result will fall between 11% and 19%.
Here's why their conclusions are wrong, wrong, wrong:
Tennessee's population of 5.8 million is not evenly distributed throughout the state. This poll has a built-in bias that will tend to skew down the potential Democratic turnout. The population is heavily urbanized, and the turnout in 3 counties -- Davidson (Nashville), Shelby (Memphis) and Knox (Knoxville) could easily determine the outcome of the election. Hell, the total margin of victory for Bush in 2000 was roughly 80,000 votes (a 6 point spread, for what it's worth) -- so one game at Neyland Stadium at 80% capacity could have swung the election.
Now, based on 625 people which were pulled from a geographically weighted sample of the state's 95 counties, they're trying to say that Bush would win by over twice that?
Even given Bush's dismal record? Even despite the fact that every other poll for the past couple of months has shown a statistical dead heat? Even given the phenomenal increase in Democratic activity, in voter registration, and in a visible public sentiment that is a lot more anti-Republican than it has been in at least four years? Even given that Tennessee's state house and senate are majority Democrat? And that the governor is a Democrat? And that the two largest metros in the state are heavily Democrat?
Sorry, Mason-Dixon. That dog don't hunt. This election may be determined by "geos," but not the way you're reporting them. Rural turnout may skew Republican by percentages, but you're taking from a smaller pool numbers-wise. If you win a county of 100,000 by a spread of 60-40, you still get beaten (and outweighed) by a county of 1,000,000 which splits closer to even. Hell, you gotta have five or six counties with a much bigger spread in order to beat back the huge metros.
And if Shelby County breaks for George W. Bush, I'll put up an elephant in my cubicle at work.
A fat load of crap from the Nashville Tennessean, that's what. The headline shouldn't be about how the differential in Tennessee is Bush by 16... it should be why there hasn't been a consistent polling result in the whole few months running up to this election.
Bush may be ahead here, but I'm certain that the lead is single-digit.
Here's the methodology:
The Tennessean and Chattanooga Times Free Press poll was conducted by the national polling firm of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C.
It included a sample of 625 registered voters who said they are ''likely'' to vote in the Nov. 2 general election. Interviews were conducted by telephone over four days from Sept. 11-14.
The sample included people whose phone numbers were randomly selected and then weighted by exchanges to ensure statewide coverage and by county to reflect voter turnout in prior elections. (emphasis mine)
The poll includes a margin for error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. That means there is a 95% probability the results of the poll are within 4 percentage points higher or lower than the result if the entire population was sampled. For example, if a candidate scores 15%, there is a 19 out of 20 chance the actual result will fall between 11% and 19%.
Here's why their conclusions are wrong, wrong, wrong:
Tennessee's population of 5.8 million is not evenly distributed throughout the state. This poll has a built-in bias that will tend to skew down the potential Democratic turnout. The population is heavily urbanized, and the turnout in 3 counties -- Davidson (Nashville), Shelby (Memphis) and Knox (Knoxville) could easily determine the outcome of the election. Hell, the total margin of victory for Bush in 2000 was roughly 80,000 votes (a 6 point spread, for what it's worth) -- so one game at Neyland Stadium at 80% capacity could have swung the election.
Now, based on 625 people which were pulled from a geographically weighted sample of the state's 95 counties, they're trying to say that Bush would win by over twice that?
Even given Bush's dismal record? Even despite the fact that every other poll for the past couple of months has shown a statistical dead heat? Even given the phenomenal increase in Democratic activity, in voter registration, and in a visible public sentiment that is a lot more anti-Republican than it has been in at least four years? Even given that Tennessee's state house and senate are majority Democrat? And that the governor is a Democrat? And that the two largest metros in the state are heavily Democrat?
Sorry, Mason-Dixon. That dog don't hunt. This election may be determined by "geos," but not the way you're reporting them. Rural turnout may skew Republican by percentages, but you're taking from a smaller pool numbers-wise. If you win a county of 100,000 by a spread of 60-40, you still get beaten (and outweighed) by a county of 1,000,000 which splits closer to even. Hell, you gotta have five or six counties with a much bigger spread in order to beat back the huge metros.
And if Shelby County breaks for George W. Bush, I'll put up an elephant in my cubicle at work.
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